On the eve of the presidential election, a traditional shuffling of governor’s seats is taking place. Is it possible to predict the path of an eagle in the sky, snakes on a rock or politics in the Russian Federation? Political scientists from Minchenko Consulting tackled this non-trivial task and conducted a large-scale study, trying to determine which governors would not last long on top of the political Olympus and which would remain on it for an indefinite period.
Research methodology
The activities of officials included in the sustainability list of Russian governors were analyzed from January to August 2017 and evaluated according to nine criteria.
- The main one is the support of the governor by the so-called “Politburo 2.0”, that is, the president’s inner circle.
- Another criterion is whether the governor is currently conducting any major project.
- Next is the degree of economic development of the region.
- The next criterion is the time at the end of the term of governorship. It is clear that if the governor has just been elected, they are unlikely to be going to change him in the near future.
- The degree of individuality of the governor is also important (the more he differs from other officials, the better),
- The quality of political management is also taken into account.
- Researchers attached importance to the existence of quarrels between governors and those in power at the federal level.
- The eighth criterion is the presence of quarrels between the governor and regional officials.
- And finally, the ninth point is the degree of interest in the governor (or his team) of law enforcement agencies and the threat of criminal cases and arrests in the governor's circle.
The more positive criteria a governor's career meets, the more firmly he has established himself in his governor's chair. But those under whom it is already dangerously staggered are listed below.
Rating of loser governors threatened with resignation
10. Georgy Poltavchenko (St. Petersburg)
Number of points: 8
The ranking of the failed governors of 2017 is opened by the former lieutenant general of the tax police and the current head of St. Petersburg, who replaced Valentin Matvienko in such a crucial post.
A small percentage of those who voted for United Russia, a low turnout, and a scandal with St. Isaac's Cathedral are three pillars that hold rumors about the possible resignation of Poltavchenko from the post of mayor of St. Petersburg. However, such conversations have been going on for a long time, back in 2014, many in Smolny expected Poltavchenko to resign in early summer. But in the end, he received a mandate for five years of work.
9. Vyacheslav Bitarov (North Ossetia)
Number of points: 8
The press service of Bitarov claims that rumors of his resignation are not true. And the trip to Moscow, suggestive of the duration of his governorship, can turn into only ordinary participation in the meeting.
8. Pavel Konkov (Ivanovo region)
Number of points: 8
On the eighth line in the top 11 governors who may face resignation in 2017, is the head of the Ivanovo region. This is an economically weak region, in addition, over the past few years, several corruption scandals have occurred in it in connection with the arrest of regional officials.
7. Alexander Berdnikov (Altai)
Number of points: 8
The government of Berdnikov was undermined by both suspicions of economic fraud, and a love of booze and careless statements. This summer, the head of Altai made obscene words about the Altai people and threatened the local blogger with criminal prosecution. What can you do, the wrong people went to many governors.
6. Svetlana Orlova (Vladimir region)
Number of points: 8
Orlova herself would like to return to Moscow, only there was no place for her, and several influential people are not ready to see her there. She may have to remain in the post of Vladimir governor for another year or two.
The main complaint against her administration is the overly protracted construction of a school in the Vladimir microdistrict 8-SW. Despite the fact that officials received 582 million rubles from the regional budget for “school needs”, the first contractor Glavpromstroy disrupted all construction schedules, as a result it was mothballed. Now half of the school buildings lack walls. However, in an interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Svetlana Yuryevna promised that the object will be completed on time.
5. Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorsky Territory)
Number of points: 7
It is possible that soon Miklushevsky will follow his colleague Vladimir Shantsev from the Nizhny Novgorod region, Minchenko Consulting experts predicted that he would soon resign, and at the time of publication of the report, their forecast was confirmed - on September 26, Shantsev was dismissed. But the governor of Primorsky Krai still has to "sit on the suitcases." Either the “jacket for 500,000 rubles” so spoiled his image, or the lies about the New Year in Vladivostok, and not in Dubai, or the appalling situation on the labor market, because the Primorsky Territory “collected” 15% of all wage arrears in Of Russia. And perhaps the fact that two of his five deputies are under investigation played a role.
4. Marina Kovtun (Murmansk region)
Number of points: 6.
The strength of Kovtun’s position raises doubts among experts. She may be involved in the case of money laundering under the cover of charity, and Irina Yarovoy also wants to govern. According to unconfirmed information, the Murmansk governor has already been announced the resignation, although Kovtun herself denies these speculations.
3. Alexander Karlin (Altai Territory), Victor Nazarov (Omsk Region)
Number of points: 6.
The administration of the governor and the government of the Altai Territory is in full swing with searches. And for the mouth-watering piece of the pie in the form of the governorship of the Omsk Region, there are already applicants: in addition to the “Gazprom”, these are the “siloviki”, “Rostekhovtsy” and (unexpectedly) Russian Railways. Which of these forces will win is unknown.
But Nazarov, having completed his task, that is, having transferred all the gas distribution flows of the region to Gazprom’s hands, simply became unnecessary. Recently, he has simply been passively observing the situation from the outside.
2. Vladimir Gorodetsky (Novosibirsk region)
Number of points: 5.
On the second line in the ranking of Russian governors who received a "red card" is the head of the Novosibirsk region. Like his colleague Viktor Tolokonsky (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Gorodetsky was not close enough to Politburo 2.0. And if the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory on September 27 already made a letter of resignation, then the head of Novosibirsk is still holding on. But for how long? So far, he is engaged in his gubernatorial affairs - communicating with journalists, resolving the issue of “garbage concession”, and is not going to “comment on gossip” (as he put it). By the way, rumors about his resignation went back in April 2017, but did not materialize.
1. Alexey Orlov (Kalmykia)
Number of points: 4
In the first place in the lists of governors from the risk group is the head of Kalmykia. This is one of the most disadvantaged regions from the financial and economic point of view of the Russian Federation, and constant embezzlement of the budget only worsens the situation. Only last year, a criminal case was opened against the former vice-premier of the republic, Larisa Vasilyeva. And rumors about the resignation of Orlov have been circulating for already a year.
The most effective governors, the Minchenko Consulting version
As for the heavyweight governors, who are unlikely to leave their posts in the near future, Minchenko Consulting analysts include Sergei Sobyanin, Anatoly Artamonov, Alexey Dyumin and Evgeny Savchenko, and from younger politicians Andrei Vorobyov and Dmitry Kobylkin. Sobyanin, Kobylkin and Dyumin scored 19 points of "stability", Savchenko and Vorobyov - 16, and Artamonov - 15.
